Unlearning 101

Unlearning Urban Myths

It is Halloween today and I, along with millions of other parents, will patrol the sidewalks as our kids go from house to house. It didn't use to be this way. As a youth, I never recall seeing a parent -- except at the door. The kids owned the night!

So, what changed? Well, a big part of the answer is that many of us heard of the infamous "razor in the apple" story and came to believe the world was a much more dangerous place than it actually is.

The only problem with the "razor" story is that it isn't true. It never occurred. According to a study conducted a few years ago by a professor at California State University, Fresno, 40 years of evidence uncovered only two deaths from tainted Halloween candy -- and none from razor blades.

To put this in some perspective, your kid is more likely to die from your car's air bag tonight (as you are driving him or her to a "sponsored" Halloween party) than from digesting tainted candy.

Alas, few parents are willing to "unlearn" this truth and, as a result, we will deny our children the great sense of freedom we were allowed to feel on Halloween when we were kids. That's the real "boo" this Halloween.

Unlearning Bubbles

The Internet, the real estate market, fuel cell technology, nanotechnology and, now, "clean tech" have all experienced an investing "bubble." In retrospect, it is easy to point to signs that the market was inflating to dangerous levels. It is even easier to suggest that such bubbles are a bad thing -- precisely because so many investors got burned and lost a great a deal of money.

Bob Metcalfe, an early and successful Internet entrepreneur, see bubbles differently. He sees bubbles as a good thing. Here's his quote: "From Internet history, we know that bubbles are normal. Bubbles are an accelerator of technology progress. Bubbles go against the status quo. We should encourage bubbles."

I suspect that such statements are much easier to make when you're already a billionaire; as opposed, say, to someone to just lost a large amount of money in the stock market. Nevertheless, there is a certain logic to his argument and we may want not to dismiss all bubbles as cases of irrational investors getting sucked up by the winds of "irrational exuberance." Instead we want to view them as "technology accelerators." (This might not ease the financial pain of those who lost money in the bubble, but it might at least make them feel a little bit better about themselves.)

unlearning self-interest

David Brooks has an excellent opinion piece in today's paper. Here's the operative quote: "this financial meltdown is not just a financial event, but also a cultural one. It's a big, whopping reminder that the human mind is continually trying to perceive things that aren't true, and not perceiving them takes enormous effort."

Unlearning the Great Wall

Quick! What is the only man-made object visible from space? Did you say, "The Great Wall of China." If so, you're wrong. (For an explanation, click here.)

Don't feel bad, though. A great many people answer the same way -- myself included.

It is interesting to consider how common myths become accepted as common fact. The question we all need to ask ourselves, however, is what other things in our lives have we accepted as fact but which may not  be true.

Add a Question Mark

"In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted." -- Bertrand Russell

Clothes Might Matter More Than You Think

It has been said that "the clothes make the man." And with all the hullabaloo surrounding Sarah Palin's $150,000 campaign wardrobe, it is clear that clothes can also make -- or, perhaps, in Palin's case -- unmake the woman.

Regardless of what one thinks of the first quote or Palin's attire, clothes do matter and, in the health care field, they might soon matter more than most people realize.

I recently received an email from an old friend and she wanted to know if "unlearning" had implications for her field of expertise -- infection control. The short answer is "maybe."

I say "maybe" because I don't know much about her specific field. I do, however, follow advances in emerging technologies and I recently came across two articles that suggest that specialists in infection control might want to put "germ-killing" clothing on their radar screen.

Researchers in England and the United States are now actively exploring how to deploy nanotechnology-enhanced textiles to fight the MRSA infections in hospitals. (The link to the second article is entitled: "Killer Kevlar: Clothing That Shields From Germs".)

Now, I'm not suggesting that new lines of clothing will completely eradicate staph infections at hospitals, but it is possible that new nano-enhanced surgical gowns, bedding, curtains and pillows might add another layer of protective defense against the growing threat of drug-resistant germs.  

All-State Insurance Unlearns

All-State Insurance is now sending video games to customers between the ages of 50 and 75. According to this article, “ten hours of game playing turns the clock back 10 years in terms of memory, useful field of view, processing visual information, and general cognitive functions.” More important, the technology could reduce the risk of a crash by 50 percent.

As America continues to age, and as seniors become increasingly comfortable with video-gaming, the push to use technology in new and innovative ways will only increase. The companies that embrace this trend stand to profit handsomely. Those which are incapable or unwilling to "unlearn" the idea that seniors and video games don't match will lose. 

The Next Best Thing Since Sliced Bread?

It is not likely to replace the invention of sliced bread in terms of popular business cliches, but new research indicates that a different type of packaging (one which contains cinnamon oil) could keep bread fresher for a longer period of time. If true, this could require food processors to unlearn their current tactics for fighting mold (e.g. ultraviolet light, sterile packaging, chemical preservatives, etc).

Have Some Intellectual Humility

“There is a huge difference between what people actually know and how much they think they know.”

                 --Nassim Taleb

In his book, Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart, Ian Ayres writes, “People think they know more than they actually know.” To prove this point, he asks his readers to answer 10 questions so that they are 90 percent confident that their answer is correct. For example, in the first question, you are to fill in the blanks: “I am 90 percent confident the length of the Nile River is between ___ miles and ___ miles long.”

                                                                                                                                 Low                 High

1. What is the length of the Nile River, in miles?                        _____              _____
2. What was Martin Luther King Jr.’s age at death?                  _____              _____
3. How many countries belong to OPEC?                                      _____              _____
4. How many books are there in the Old Testament?               _____              _____
5. What is the diameter of the moon, in miles?                           _____              _____
6. What is the weight of an empty Boeing 747, in pounds?   _____              _____
7. In what year was Mozart born?                                                    _____              _____
8. What is the gestation of an Asian elephant, in days?           _____              _____
9. What is the air distance from London to Tokyo, in miles? _____             _____
10. What is the deepest known point in the ocean, in feet?     _____              _____

The answers are listed below. Did you get at least 9 answers correct? If not, don’t worry, you’re not alone. Most people get more than one answer wrong because they are over-confident. Or, as Nassim Taleb says, “There is a huge difference between what people actually know and how much they think they know.”

More often than not we know less than we think we know. This finding should lead all of us to have some intellectual humility.

Answers: (1) 4,187 miles. (2) 39 years. (3) 13 countries. (4) 39 books. (5) 2,160 miles. (6) 390,000 pounds. (7) 1756. (8) 645. (9) 5.959 miles. (10) 36, 198 feet.

Unlearning Your Daily Commute

I live in a major metropolitan area and the traffic situation drives me crazy. If someone then told me that they were going to close a road in order to reduce traffic congestion, I’d likely think they were either crazy or stupid. As I mention in my book, Jump the Curve, emerging technologies can, however, often throw people—myself included—for a loop. This story is a perfect case-in-point.

One would think that perfect information on traffic conditions would lead to an optimization of people’s personal travel time. Alas, this is not always the case. In fact, people’s commutes in major cities such as Boston, London and New York can be reduced by 30%, 24% and 28% by selecting the “social optimum” choice instead of the "personally optimum" choice. And, if people are reluctant to unlearn this finding because it defies conventional wisdom, local governments or traffic departments can always choose to close a road or two and force them into a better (i.e. faster) choice . Of course such a scenario smacks of Big Brother-like socialism and makes the civil libertarian in me cringe, but if you read the article you’ll at least understand the logic behind the idea.