Unlearning 101

My 10 Favorite Books (on Unlearning) of 2010

Dear Reader:

It is the time of the year for lists, so I figured I would put together a list of the books which most influenced my thinking on the topic of unlearning this year. The list is in no particular order:

#1: The Medium is the Massage: An Inventory of Effects by Marshall McLuhan. Contrary to popular belief, the title of this 1967 classic is not "The Medium is the Message," it is "The Medium is the Massage." Here's one worthwhile quote from the book: "Survival is not possible if one approaches his environment ... with a fixed, unchangeable point of view--the witless repetitive response to the unperceived."

#2: Ignore Everybody and 39 Other Keys to Creativity by Hugh MacLeod. Lesson #17: The world is changing ... avoid folks who play it safe. (This is why I believe playing it safe is risky.)

#3: Iconoclast: A Neuroscientist Reveals How to Think Differently by Gregory Berns. This book reminds us that "the brain is fundamentally a lazy piece of meat." One strategy to strengthen your grey matter is to begin a "notebook of things you don't know about."

#4: Linchpin: Are Your Indispensable? by Seth Godin. Instead following the manual, Godin encourages us to try writing the manual. Great advice if you want to successfully navigate the future.

#5: NurtureShock: New Thinking About Children by Po Bronson & Ashley Merryman. Fact: IQ scores are not valid for life ... society, parents and educators should stop behaving as such. (You might also want to stop telling your child that he or she is smart.)

#6: SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner. Did you know that a drunk walker is eight times as likely to be killed as a drunk driver? Neither did I. This just one of many interesting things which required unlearning on my part as I read this book.

#7: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb. I actually read this outstanding book in 2007. The author, however, added an 80-page addendum to the book this year and, on this basis alone, it was worth re-buying. The book is outstanding reminder of this vital point: What we don't know is often far more important than what we do know.

#8: Cognitive Surplus: Creativity and Generosity in a Connected Age by Clay Shirky. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Internet isn't making us dumber. In fact, it has the potential to revolutionize and improve the world in some unexpected ways. Shirky also does an excellent job of explaining how "more has a quality all of its own."

#9: The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Out Intuitions Deceive Us by Chris Chabris and Dan Simons. In case after case and example after example, the authors explain why our minds don't work the way we suppose they do.

#10: Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us by Dan Pink. Think you know what motivates you? After reading this book, you'll think again. I especially liked this quote: "Unlearning old ideas is difficult, undoing old habits is even harder." So true ... that why I keep reading and unlearning! Here's to great 2011!

P.S. If you're looking for a great book for kids about the importance of unlearning, I'd recommend The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster. (Also see this old post on The Wisdom of the Phantom Tollbooth.)

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Unlearning is as Simple as Tic-Tac-Toe

Take a look at the familiar tic-tac-toe grid to the right. In how many different ways could you make the journey? It is not common for people to guess 27, 81 or even 243. The answer, however, is 362,800. This is because the number of permutations is 362,800. (The actual number of winning or draw games is 255,168. For a more complete explanation click here.) My point is that either number is significantly larger than most people expect.

The same is true when thinking of the future. It is comforting to believe we can predict future with great certainty but as a professionalist futurist--and you may find this ironic, counter-intuitive, paradoxical or even disturbing--I make no claim to be able to predict the future.

Here’s why.

Consider almost any issue. What factors are involved? In my work as a professional futurist and forecaster, I regularly speak about 1) technology; 2) competitors; 3) customers; 4) employees; 5) money; 6) demographic characteristics; 7) politics; 8) regulatory issues; and 9) human behavior.

In many ways these characteristics are analogous to the X’s and O’s in a tic-tac-toe game and they can play out in hundreds or thousands of ways. In fact, the real number is so astronomical as to be incalcuable because there isn’t just one technology, one competitor or one employee to be concerned with in each circumstance. There are many and each one adds exponentially to the number of new possible outcomes.

All of this is not to say that forecasting isn’t valuable and worthwhile. It is. (I wouldn’t be a professional futurist if I didn’t believe this.) Rather, I merely want you to unlearn the idea that the future can be predicted with great clarity. It can’t.

Counter-intuitively, though, you can gain a better feel for the range of future possibilities but only if you first think and long about all of the variables which can affect your future.

P.S. But, as the post below suggests, don’t forget about Black Swans.

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Study at an Anti-Library

 

"There is a huge difference between what people actually know and how much they think they know." – Nassim Taleb

 

Question: Which of these animals is more likely to kill you: A shark or a deer?

 

If you said a shark you are not alone. The right answer, however, is the deer. Even if you answered the question correctly the odds of being killed by a deer instead of a shark may surprise you. You are 300-times more likely to be killed at the hands – or the “hoof” if you will – of a deer.

 

The reason the vast majority of people incorrectly answer this question is because shark attacks, although quite rare, are both vividly recalled and easy to imagine. It is not uncommon for television news stories to report shark attacks even when those attacks occur thousands of miles away; and, if you are over the age of 40, you will likely recall the movie “Jaws.” The former leaves the impression shark attacks are more common than they really are, while the latter ensures those rare attacks are “felt” at a deep, visceral level.

 

Instances of drivers striking deer on remote country roads and dying in the resulting collision, on the other hand, are much more common. They are so common, in fact, that they rarely warrant even a passing mention on the local news.

 

The discrepancy between the relative danger of sharks and deer is a poignant reminder of that old adage: What we don’t know is more important than what we do know. Or as Henry David Thoreau more elegantly framed the issue: “How can we remember our ignorance, which our growth requires, when we are using our knowledge all the time?”

 

One of the better ways to remind of ourselves of our ignorance – and to remain open to the concept of unlearning – is to keep our ignorance top-of-mind. One of the more effective tools to do this is to create an anti-library. As Nassim Taleb recounts in his provocative and insightful book, The Black Swan, an anti-library is a collection of books that one hasn’t read.

 

Unlike a shelf or bookcase filled with previously read books, an anti-library houses unread books that contain valuable information but which you haven’t had a chance to access. With an estimated 3,000 new books being published daily and the rate of scientific knowledge purported to be doubling every seven years, it is safe to assume that there is a growing body of knowledge which is relevant to you and your business.

 

Unfortunately, you won’t often know what this missing knowledge is! The best you can do in such a deplorable situation is to stay intellectually humble by reminding yourself of your growing ignorance and the need to remain open to unlearning.

 

You are free to ignore this advice but remember this: What you don’t know can kill you -- almost as easily as a deer.

 

Homework Assignment #5: If your financial situation permits start an anti-library. Alternatively, using an online tool such as Shelfari, begin compiling a list of books that might contain useful knowledge but which you don’t or won’t have the time to read. Add a minimum of one book a week for a year to your anti-library.

 

 

Unlearning from the Perspective of a Turkey

Being the day before Thanksgiving here in America, I thought I would recount a wonderful story from Nassim Taleb's outstanding book, The Black Swan:  

 "Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."

Taleb goes on to add this: "Think of the feeding again: What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps, but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that "little less" that may make all the difference."

Here's to wishing you and your loved ones a Happy Thanksgiving ... but remember this: The knowledge you have learned in the past may have been useful, indeed, instrumental to your current success but it is no guarantee that it will insure your survival tomorrow. Just ask a turkey. Stay open to unlearning!

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To Unlearn: Try Reading the Newspaper Backwards

In my 2008 book, Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead of Emerging Technologies, one strategy I encourage people to employ from time to time is that of reading the newspaper backwards. Why? Because it can help you more clearly see where the future is headed. This, in turn, will reinforce why unlearning is so important to your survival.

Yesterday, for example, as I was returning from Dallas where I delivered a keynote presentation on the future of travel and tourism to the Texas Travel Industry Association, I began by reading the marketing section of the Wall Street Journal from back-to-front. Here’s what I noticed. On Page 8, it was revealed that Sarah Palin’s new book won’t be released in an E-book until after Christmas. This is noteworthy for the simple fact that it wouldn’t have been noteworthy as recently as last year. In other words, E-books have now become so popular that when a new book isn’t released in electronic format at the same time as the print version it qualifies as news. It’s clear from this development that e-book sales will only continue to rise at the expense of traditional hardcover books and that the publishing industry must unlearn some of its current assumptions.

On Page B7 there was a similar story, only this one related to the advertising industry: Web Ad Sales in Britain Overtake TV. On Page B6, it was announced that Lemmis Lighting is releasing a 20-year lightbulb. (Imagine this: In the future your kid or grandchild might not be able to change a lightbulb because it is something they only have to do once every two decades!) The broader implication is that both marketers and professionals in the lighting business will soon need to unlearn how they do business.

And then on Page B5 there were two articles of note. First, there was a small article announcing that Princeton University was testing Amazon Kindle’s DX e-book as part of a national pilot program; and, second, there was a larger article explaining that the airline industry is finally getting serious about employing RFID tags to track baggage. Both news stories reinforce the growing prevalence of e-books and RFID technology.

My friends, the future is here. To learn more about it all you need to do is read the back of the newspaper! If you do, I think you'll better understand why we must all continue to unlearn.

P.S. If you keep reading the 9/30/09 edition of the WSJ, on Page 3, there is article explaining why biobutanol might soon replace ethanol as America’s biofuel of choice. (It'd be wonderful if Congress could unlearn its infatuation with ethanol.)

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Unlearning Prediction

"Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu

This famous quote was uttered over 2500 years ago and may strike some people as odd that, as a professional futurist, I have chosen to highlight it.

My rationale is two-fold. First, as I have said many times before, the chief responsibility of a futurist is not to “predict” the future but rather outline a range of future possibilities. Second, and more important, I have highlighted the quote because it is true.

If you have not already read Nassim Taleb's outstanding book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, do so as soon as possible. On Page 177 of the book, Taleb has an illustration of the scattering effect which artfully explains why predicting the future—especially for longer time frames—is virtually impossible.

Because I can’t reprint the figure here, I am left with Taleb’s analogy for understanding the scattering effect: the prediction of a billiard ball.

Assuming one has knowledge of the location of every ball and the speed and accuracy of the cue ball, it is relatively easy to predict the movement of the ball after the first shot. A person might even expect that, due to the growing computational power of computers, the second, third and fourth degree movements can be estimated with great accuracy. The problem, however, grows increasingly complex with each subsequent movement and after the ninth movement the gravitational pull of a person standing at the next pool table exerts enough of an effect to alter the trajectory of the ball. And after 56 movements even the smallest particle on the outer edge of the universe will effect the trajectory!

The bottom line is this: There are simply too many factors to consider when contemplating the future 20, 30, 50 or 100 years out. (Even a small effect today can have outsized implications 50 years hence). The situation, of course, becomes even more complicated because of Taleb’s main thesis which is that “Black Swans”—described as “high impact, low probability” events—tend to shape the future more than “expected” trends.

Therefore, whether a future “Black Swan” takes the shape of a pandemic, an asteroid, an E-bomb, a rogue terrorist attack, a North Korean or Iranian nuclear attack, an unexpected breakthrough in quantum computing or synthetic biology, or, more likely, some “unknown unknown;” the future will be difficult too predict because we don’t have—and won’t ever have—enough knowledge about the future.

Unlearning Streaks as Feats of Excellence

"That randomness naturally leads to streaks contradicts people's intuition." Leonard Mlodinow

As luck (or, perhaps, random chance would have it), I was just in the process of finishing Leonard Mlodinow's excellent book, "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives," when I came upon this article written by him in today's Wall Street Journal. It is entitled "The Triumph of the Random" and I can't recommend it highly enough.

I say this because it will likely challenge your views of whether athletic feats of greatness -- such as Joe DiMaggio's famous 56-game hitting streak or Kobe Bryant's recent 81-point game -- are as much a matter of skill as they are random luck.

The reason this matters -- especially in the business world -- is because all too often people believe that streaks (especially smaller ones) are the result of a broader trend than they really are.

As an example, Mlodinow cites the example of a World Series match-up between a favored team and an underdog. Assuming that the favored team has a 55% chance of winning every game and the underdog only 45%, most people assume that given a seven game series the better team win will the series in an overwhelming majority of cases.

This isn't true. The underdog can actually be expected to be crowned "World Champion" 40%  of the time.  Imagine that -- forty percent of the time the "better" team won't be the winner!

The analogous situation in a business environment is that of the "focus group." All too often marketers use a relatively small sample of people in a focus group to make broader predictions about the population.

For example, the fact that 6 out of 10 people prefer a particular beverage or food product is more likely to be the result of random chance than an accurate reflection of a trend. Or the fact that your stock broker has beaten the market the last three years (or, alternatively, performed worse than the market) may have less to do with his or her financial acumen and more to do with random luck.

As I have said before, however, people are so good at seeing patterns that we often see one where none exist. This is worth keeping in mind next time you see a "hot" streak in baseball or basketball, or pat yourself on the back for having your stock portfolio outperforms the market for a couple of years in a row.

If you don't believe me, read the Mlodinow article.

What If Society Has to Unlearn Death?

In 1899, just a few years before the Wright brothers achieved their historic accomplishment, Lord Kelvin—then one of the world’s brightest men and most accomplished scientists—declared heavier than air machines to be “impossible.”

He was wrong.

To add insult to injury, Lord Kelvin was proved wrong by a pair of bicycle repairmen from Dayton, Ohio.

A few years ago, a relatively unknown computer scientist, Aubrey de Grey, declared that aging should not be viewed as something which will necessarily ultimately result in death. Rather, he theorized that aging is a disease and should instead be treated as such.

The outcry from the scientific community was similar to Lord Kelvin’s reaction to human flight. One group of scientists even declared that de Grey’s idea was “so far from plausible that it commands no respect at all within the informed scientific community.”

Well, according to this article in Wired, the idea is now beginning to gain some acceptance within scientific circles.

To be sure, society is still a long way from de Grey’s goal of ending aging but, as I have written before, I’d encourage people to not dismiss the idea entirely. For if he is right, it will require society to unlearn a great many ideas which it now holds as dear.

In fact, the scale of unlearning our current paradigm of “death as an inevitability” could make other past historic paradigm shifts—such as the idea that the earth is not at the center of the universe (an idea for which Aristarchus was run out of Alexandria and Galileo was forced to recant under edict of the Catholic Church) or Darwin’s theory of evolution—look like child’s play.

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A Lesson in Unlearning from Peter Bernstein

"We simply do not know what the future holds." -- Peter Bernstein

Peter Bernstein, a best-selling author and risk management pioneer, passed away earlier this month. On Saturday, the Wall Street Journal ran a nice remembrance. I especially liked the final paragraph which read:

"Asked in 2004 to name the most important lesson he had to unlearn, he said: "That I knew what the future held, that you can figure this thing out. I've become increasingly humble about it over time and comfortable with that. You have to understand that being wrong is part of the [investing] process."

It is a wonderful reminder to both unlearning -- and to the importance of having some intellectual humility.

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Unlearn the Future, Today

Effective today, June 8, 2009, General Motors and Citigroup are no longer components of the Dow 30. In and of itself this news has no great relevance, but it does highlight how fast today’s economy continues to change. As I mentioned the other day on my other blog (www.jumpthecurve.net), many people think that "tomorrow will be pretty much like yesterday.” This simply isn’t true.

One strategy I have advocated for unlearning the future is to "develop a future bias.” As a thought exercise and to help you unlearn, I’d like to suggest a second exercise: review the members of the current Dow 30 and imagine which company will be the next to be removed from the list and explain why it might go. (For extra credit, I invite you to imagine which company might replace it.) The purpose of this exercise is to force you what of your comfort zone and come face-to-face with the reality that “the only constant is change” and unlearning is a critical skill for the future. (Also see "The Future Requires Unlearning.)

To help you get started, here are some possibilities. Advances in nanotechnology could cause many of the materials Alcoa makes to become either irrelevant or obsolete, and the company will be replaced by a nanomaterial company. Or perhaps Caterpillar will not remain competitive due to advances in robotics and it will be replaced by iRobot. A third alternative is that intense competition from Nokia will wreak havoc on both AT&T and Verizon and they will be replaced on the Dow 30 by Google, which may continue to make strides in the communication field with its new Android platform. A fourth possibility is that new advances in biotechnology will render many existing drugs obsolete and Pfizer will be replaced on the Dow 30 with a biotech company such as Genentech.

Really, there is no shortage of possibilities but one of the best ways to prepare for the future is to simply acknowledge that it is going to change. And, as Darwin said: “It is not the strongest of a species that survives, nor is it the fittest; it is those that can adapt the fastest.” Are you and your organization prepared to adapt -- and unlearn? Quickly?

If not, you could go the way of General Motors.

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