Unlearning 101

God Dome It! Unlearn!

The Saint Ignatius church in Rome was originally designed to include a cupola. For financial reasons, the feature was never built.

In moment, sparked by Divine intervention perhaps, Church officials hired Andrea Pozzo to paint a fake dome on the ceiling over the altar. Today, more than 300 years later, many visitors are shocked to find out the spectacular cupola above them is not real but an illusion.

Sometimes all it takes to unlearn a problem is the willingness to embrace a new perspective.

Interested in some other examples of turning problems into opportunities? Check out these older posts by self-described "Chief Unlearning Officer" Jack Uldrich:

Put One Foot in Back of the Other

The Opposite May Also Be True

Disenthrall to Unlearn

In today's Wall Street Journal Matt Ridley has an excellent article on unlearning. In it, however, he credits someone else with pairing the concept of unlearning with Abraham Lincoln's use of the word "disenthrall." For the record, I did it two years ago in this post.

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To Unlearn: Learn to Disenthrall

Teach Unlearning in Kindergarten

Unlearning the Future: Part II

 

Into the Unknown: A Historical Metaphor

In 2004, I wrote the book Into the Unknown: Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark’s Daring Westward Expedition. One of my favorite stories—because it has so much relevance for today’s business leaders —occurred in early June 1805.

On June 2, 1805, Lewis and Clark approached a fork in the Missouri River. During their consultations with the Indians the previous winter nothing had been mentioned of this second river. It was, however, critical that the Corps of Discovery follow the true Missouri River. If they didn’t, they were unlikely to reach and then successfully pass over the Rocky Mountains before winter. This setback would have jeopardized the entire mission.

Lewis and Clark split their team up and sent one group up the north river and a second group down the south river. After three days, both teams returned and were still unsure as to which river was the true Missouri.

Lewis and Clark being the good leaders that they were then split up. Meriwether Lewis traveled north and William Clark went south. After a few days the two men returned and they still weren’t sure.

While they were away something very interesting occurred. All 30 members of the team determined that the north river was the true Missouri. They reached this decision the following way: For the past year, the Corps of Discovery had been traveling up the Missouri River and the water was “warm, slow, muddy and brown.” The water of the north river was also “warm, slow, muddy and brown,” therefore they reasoned it was the true Missouri. It is the equivalent of saying that “Tomorrow is going to be pretty much like yesterday.”

Lewis and Clark conferred among themselves and reached a far different conclusion. In the face of complete opposition, they announced the south river was the true Missouri. They reasoned as follows: At some point the snow from the mountains needed to melt and when it did it would create a river that was cold, fast and clear.” Those characteristics matched the south river and, as history demonstrated, the two captains made the correct decision.

My point is this: Many, if not most, people think that “tomorrow will be pretty much like yesterday.” From my perch as a professional futurist, I see the trends in biotechnology, nanotechnology, information technology, RFID, social networking and robotics (to name but a few) are accelerating and I know that tomorrow is going to be radically different then either yesterday or today—and we need more leaders with the courage to unlearn their old ways and, instead, chart a new course into the unknown.

Dispel Old Ignorance

In his famous speech at Rice University where he declared that it was America's intention to put a man on the moon by the end of the decade, President Kennedy said "the greater our knowledge increases, the greater our ignorance unfolds," adding that "the vast stretches of the unknown and the unanswered and the unfinished still far outstrip our collective comprehension." Kennedy went on to offer a historical perspective for the magnitude of change society had experienced over the short course of human history. He asked his audience to condense the 50,000 years of man's recorded history into the span of fifty years. Under this scenario, Kennedy noted that not much happened for the first forty years. Ten years ago, man emerged from his cave, and only five years ago did he learned to write. Christianity appeared two years ago, the printing press this year, and just two months ago the steam engine appeared. Last month electric lights, telephones, automobiles, and airplanes became available, and only last week did we develop penicillin, television, and nuclear weapons. To reach "the stars before midnight tonight," Kennedy then poignantly added that Americans would have to "dispel old [and] new ignorance." Since achieving Kennedy's goal in 1969, progress has continued exponentially. In the last proverbial "day" computers, biotechnology, the Internet, and the sequencing of the human genome have all appeared on the scene. What Kennedy's analogy reminds us it that will need to continue to 'dispel old ignorance" -- or continuously unlearn if you will -- only on a faster scale because the future is about to change in the "blink of an eye.".

Unlearning a Personal Perspective of the Holocaust

I recently had the opportunity to visit the Holocaust Museum in Washington, DC. It was an enlightening experience and my 10 year-old daughter is now reading the diary of Anne Frank. Nevertheless, as I explained yesterday in this post on visual unlearning, often if data can be presented in a new way it can lead to new insights.  

To this end, although I consider myself generally well read about world history and in spite of the fact that I had just visited the Holocaust Museum when I saw this chart (posted to the left) visualizing the data from which countries the murdered Jews came from, I was very surprised. For years, I had incorrectly assumed the largest number came from Germany. Moreover, it was not just that I was wrong by a little, I was way off. (Although the chart is a difficult to read, the giant purple circle represents Poland -- and 3.1 million murdered Jews. The light blue circle is the former Soviet Union and another 1.5 million deaths.)

It was just another reminder that I must constantly challenge my assumptions and occasionally engage in some situational unawareness training.

P.S. I originally wrote this piece before the death of Poland's president, Lech Kaczynski and 95 other Polish patriots in a plane crash in Russia. My heartfelt condolences to the people of Poland. It is yet another heart-breaking tragedy -- in a long line of them.

Erasing into the Future

 “Only the hand that erases can write the truth”. So wrote German theologian, philosopher and mystic Meister Eckardt more than 800 years ago.

They are still good words to live by.

In the middle of the 19th century, blackboards were all the rage. In fact, some universities, seeking to gain a competitive advantage, even advertised that they were the only college within “a 100 miles” to sport the new technology.

This historical analogy is worth keeping in mind as university’s today tout that they offer every student a laptop or, perhaps, house the only high-tech lab “within a 100 miles.” The technology is no doubt sophisticated and it does offer a real advantage but it is important to remember that it will eventually be replaced by something else.

The real question, of course, is how soon. Far too many teachers, professors and schools continue to rely on blackboards not because they are the best tool (although they still do have a role to play) but because their hands (and minds) can’t erase their old habits and behaviors.

We are racing into the future but for those organizations unwilling to unlearn and change all they are really doing is erasing their students future.

Related Post

Is the Future of College $99 a Month?

Big Problems Don't Always Require Big Fixes

Big problems such as health care, feeding the world and addressing climate change don't necessarily require big solutions. In the 19th century, Ignaz Semmelweis helped save the lives of hundreds of thousands of women by getting doctors to wash their hands prior to assisting in the delivery of a new-born child. (Unfortunately, however, it still required the medical community nearly two decades to unlearn their stubborn and unhealthy habits.)   

Alas, in the 21st century, the number of infections in hospitals remains unacceptably high. Why? Many healthcare professionals still aren't employing good hygiene. If they were better at the simple act of washing their hands, the results would be impressive -- on the order of saving thousands of lives annually and preventing billions of dollars in unnecessary costs.

In the field of agriculture, it was the addition of ammonium nitrate -- a cheap but effective crop fertilizer -- which allowed the world's farmers to feed billions more people with the same land.

Continued advances in the field of genomics may also continue to increase the yield of corn, wheat and rice by making these crops more efficient in terms of how they utilize water and fertilizer. The result: More people can be fed using the same amount of land but with less impact on the environment. 

In the automotive industry, it was the installation of the seat belt that saved the lives of thousands of motorists -- even though the device was at first ridiculed as "inconvenient, costly, and just a bunch of damn nonsense" by auto executives. The next life-saving advance could be the introduction of super-strong, super-light nanomaterials.

As strange as it may sound, the problem of hurricanes may also just need a simple fix. As Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner outline in their delightful new book, Super Freakonomics, in may be possible to prevent costly hurricanes (which, since 2005, have inflicted an estimated $153 billion in damage to the United States alone) by deploying a few thousand "hydraulic heads" in those areas where hurricanes start. The devices work by bringing cooler water from the bottom of the ocean to the top thus cooling the surface temperature of the ocean water and preventing hurricanes from forming in the first place. The estimated cost: $1 billion. 

On the bigger problem of climate change, Levitt and Dubner also outline the logic behind "Budyko's Blanket" -- a super high hose which would spew sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere -- which could theoretically cool the planet for a mere $250 million.

Now, to be fair, both the "hydraulic heads" and "Budyko Blanket" may not work and serious questions remain on both ideas. But the broader point is that when faced with big problems there is absolutely no reason why we must first look to "big answers" as the solution. Often, big problems can be solved with small solutions. After all, as a child, how many of your cuts and bruises were solved with a tender kiss from your mother?

Grow a "Knew" Perspective

 

"Fifteen hundred years ago, everyone knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everyone knew the world was flat and fifteen minute ago, you knew that people were alone on this planet. Imagine what you’ll know tomorrow.”  – Agent K, Men in Black  

Question: In a poll in early 1989, what percentage of West Germans’ believed the Berlin Wall would fall during their lifetimes? 

The answer is three percent. And yet today if you were to listen to the average historian explain the demise of communism and its impact on the Berlin Wall, the “fall of the wall” is often described as inevitable. This ability to retroactively construct detailed and plausible conclusions about the “destiny” of past events is referred to as a “hindsight bias.”

The problem with history is that while it flows forward, it is studied backwards. Consider, for example, the assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand. It is the event now generally accepted as having triggered the First World War. At the time, the average European citizen scarcely attached any significance to the event. (This is known because if people had suspected the assassination’s calamitous impact on Europe’s economy this pessimism would have been reflected in a steep decline in the bond prices on various European stock markets. This didn’t occur.)

One way to unlearn our tendency for hindsight bias is to create a future bias and attempt to forecast events before they occur. As part of this strategy it is recommended you keep a journal to record the accuracy of your forecasts.

Be forewarned, this is likely to be a humbling exercise.

Consider the case the U.S. Cavalry, which in 1882, was charged with resuscitating Yellowstone Park’s gaming population. After implementing policies to protect against poachers and instituting generous feeding programs, the park’s elk population predictably swelled. Their numbers ultimately grew so large that the elk began overgrazing and eating aspen trees. This unforeseen consequence deprived the beavers of the trees they used to construct their dams which, in turn, lead to soil erosion and wreaked havoc on Yellowstone’s ecosystem all the way down to the spawning habits of trout.

In retrospect many of these consequences might have been for foreseen but even in closed systems it is difficult to account for every variable. In today’s infinitely more dynamic and complex world making accurate predictions is virtually impossible. It would behoove everyone – but most especially “Monday morning quarterbacks” -- to recall this fact the next time they or anyone else claims to have known in advance a certain outcome was “foreseeable.”

Remember, history’s path to the present day looks clear in the rearview mirror but from the front window where it must be watched and played out in real-time, it is decidedly murkier.

Homework Assignment: Next time you catch yourself, a colleague or a pundit claiming that they knew something was going to happen, ask them to apply some of their “knew” knowledge to forecasting the next big “new” event. Record their responses and monitor their accuracy over time. You’ll likely grow a new perspective on what people later claim to have known in advance.

Related Posts (11 Other Unlearning Strategies)

#11 See What Isn't There ... Understand things from more than one way.

#10: Don't Mind Your P's & Q's ... The future is changing faster than you think.

#9: Shoot Granny Style ... Unlearning may look funny but it's worth it.

#8: Don't Just Do Something, Sit There ... Action can be costly.

#7: Argue with Yourself (It's Not Debatable) ... Know all sides of an issue.

#6: Become Uncomfortable in Your Own Skin ... Different can be good.

#5: Watch Uranus ... You can't always tell the "stars" from the real thing.

#4: Don't Listen to Your Elders ... Inexperience is what counts.

#3: Study at an Anti-Library ... Know -- or is it "No" -- more books?

#2: Put one foot in back of the other ... To go forward.

#1: Engage in some situational unawareness training ... Don't yield to a past which no longer exists.

Unlearning from the Perspective of a Turkey

Being the day before Thanksgiving here in America, I thought I would recount a wonderful story from Nassim Taleb's outstanding book, The Black Swan:  

 "Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."

Taleb goes on to add this: "Think of the feeding again: What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps, but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that "little less" that may make all the difference."

Here's to wishing you and your loved ones a Happy Thanksgiving ... but remember this: The knowledge you have learned in the past may have been useful, indeed, instrumental to your current success but it is no guarantee that it will insure your survival tomorrow. Just ask a turkey. Stay open to unlearning!

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An Unlearning Strategy: Training Your Mind to See What Isn't There

Following up on yesterday's post, I invite you to look at the logo to the right. Undoubtedly, it is one you have seen hundreds, if not thousands, of times. How many of you, however, have ever noticed the arrow between the "E" and "x." It is a wonderful  example of negative space and I want you to think of it as a metaphor for training your mind to "see what isn't there."

Let me give you a more concrete example of "seeing what isn't there." Consider for a moment the story of Abraham Wald. As a young man during World War II, the Hungarian-born mathematician served as a statistician and undertook a study on behalf of the British Air Ministry. Among his responsibilities was to assess the vulnerability of Allied airplanes to enemy fire. The intent of those who commissioned the study was to devise methods to better protect the aircraft.

Therefore, as the airplanes returned from their sorties, they were diligently assessed for damage. It was soon apparent from all the existing data that certain parts of the plane—such as the tail—were being damaged disproportionally more than other parts of the plane.

Naturally, this led RAF officials to recommend that those areas of the plane be reinforced with extra armor. Wald, however, reached just the opposite conclusion. He argued that data was only being collected from the planes that had successfully completed their mission. It didn’t include those unlucky enough to be shot down in battle. Recognizing that this created a selection bias, Wald came to the counterintuitive conclusion that the parts of the returning planes that were not riddled with holes should be the areas that received additional fortification. Why? Because he understood that those areas of the aircraft that had been hit and yet still made it back were not critical to the mission’s success.

Wald was only able to do this by "seeing what wasn't there." He "saw" the aircraft that didn't return.