Unlearning 101

Unlearning Bubbles

The Internet, the real estate market, fuel cell technology, nanotechnology and, now, "clean tech" have all experienced an investing "bubble." In retrospect, it is easy to point to signs that the market was inflating to dangerous levels. It is even easier to suggest that such bubbles are a bad thing -- precisely because so many investors got burned and lost a great a deal of money.

Bob Metcalfe, an early and successful Internet entrepreneur, see bubbles differently. He sees bubbles as a good thing. Here's his quote: "From Internet history, we know that bubbles are normal. Bubbles are an accelerator of technology progress. Bubbles go against the status quo. We should encourage bubbles."

I suspect that such statements are much easier to make when you're already a billionaire; as opposed, say, to someone to just lost a large amount of money in the stock market. Nevertheless, there is a certain logic to his argument and we may want not to dismiss all bubbles as cases of irrational investors getting sucked up by the winds of "irrational exuberance." Instead we want to view them as "technology accelerators." (This might not ease the financial pain of those who lost money in the bubble, but it might at least make them feel a little bit better about themselves.)

Unlearning Home Construction

One of the things I really enjoy about studying emerging technologies is that the field constantly challenges my thinking and forces me to think differently about the future. To this end, I invite you to read this article on a new “print-a-house” construction technology.

In the near future, it is possible that homes will be built in a few hours using automated fabrication techniques. Among other things, this means that the construction industry will need to “unlearn” its existing construction methods. It also suggests that “affordable” housing could become more than just a political platitude—it could become a political reality.

The Iceberg Principle

It is common knowledge that only about 20 percent of an iceberg floats above the waterline. Yet, if you are a ship captain, you need to concern yourself with the remaining 80 percent. If you don't, you could end up sharing a fate similar to that of Edward John Smith, the captain of the Titanic.

This "iceberg principle" does not, however, just apply to the shipping industry. In many scientific and technical fields, information is doubling at an astounding rate -- approximately every seven years. This means that by the year 2015 everything we know today about a field such as biology or physics will represent just half of our future knowledge; and in 14 years time, what we know today will represent a mere 25 percent. This vast assortment of new future knowledge will likely rip apart certain industries and businesses with the same effectiveness of the iceberg that sliced through the Titanic and dropped it to the floor of the Atlantic Ocean.

If you hope to survive, one thing likely to help you is to unlearn the habit of focusing on that portion of the "iceberg" which is above the waterline and start concerning yourself more with what you don't know today -- but will need to know in the future.